Do latte drinkers really vote for Obama?

by Ethan on April 15, 2008

The media is abuzz with speculation that Barack Obama is an elitist. A few weeks ago, at a rally for Hillary Clinton, one of her more strident local boosters proclaimed the following about Obama supporters:

“I've got news for all the latte-drinking, Prius-driving, Birkenstock-wearing, trust fund babies crowding in to hear him speak! This guy won't last a round against the Republican attack machine. He's a poet, not a fighter.”
-Tom Buffenbarger, Youngstown, Ohio

You may have cheered, you may have been offended, but hearing Mr. Buffenbarger's words you must also have wondered: is he right?

Having previously drawn political fire for suggesting the connection between steak, sushi, and voting habits, your plucky statisticians at Urbanspoon decided to roll up their sleeves and dive into this conflict.

Do latte drinkers really vote for Obama?

Is there really a connection between sipping your double tall breve and voting for Obama? We'll leave political analysis to the professionals, but this is the kind of food question we're equipped to investigate. Unfortunately, we can't directly measure how much latte everyone is drinking. But as an approximation, we looked at the number of Starbucks stores per capita on a state-by-state basis. Compare this to how states voted in the primary:

The blue line measures the percentage by which Obama beat (or lost to) Clinton. The green dots represent the number of Starbucks stores per million people for each state. The black line is the trend line of Starbucks stores, drawn to make it easier to see the relationship between voting and latte sipping.

My statistics professor might be rolling over in his grave to hear me say it, but there's a mild but real correlation here!* States with more latte-purveying Starbucks stores are more likely to have gone for Obama.

Is it possible Mr. Buffenbarger was on to something? We should probably call it a day, but let's leave our comfort zone (food) and look at the rest of his statement.

Prius drivers

Toyota won't tell us how their buyers are voting, so again we'll need an approximation. Fortunately, the folks at hybridcars.com and R.L. Polk came to our rescue. They track how many hybrids are sold per capita in each state. Comparing that with voting preferences, we can see how states with lots of Prius drivers vote, and by inference who those individuals support.

Huh. There isn't the faintest whiff of a correlation here. I suppose it's possible that all Prius drivers are, in fact, Obama supporters, but that's sure not reflected in the way hybrid-friendly states are voting. Let's move on.

Birkenstock wearers

Where the Prius failed, perhaps Birkenstock will prove a better measure of elitism. Birkenstock was kind enough to provide some sales statistics so that we could once again map against voting this primary season:

Wow. Nothing. Nada. No correlation.

Birkenstock asked me not to publish the specific numbers, but if you're wondering about the outliers -- the big winner, with the most Birkenstocks per capita was a shock to me: Wyoming. Not exactly the typical "elitist" state.

Trust fund babies

This is a tricky one, because there's no National Association of Trust Fund Babies to turn to. We could just assume all trust fund babies are sipping latte at Starbucks and refer to figure 1, but that wouldn't serve the interests of science. Instead, let's assume that trust fund babies have one thing in common, money, and look at how wealth stacks against voting habits. Let's look at per capita earnings per state, and compare that to how each state voted.

Again, what's really striking here is how little correlation we see.

Stick to the latte

Based on this exacting analysis, what can we say about the upcoming Pennsylvania primary? Well, apparently it's meaningless that Pennsylvania has fewer Priuses (Prii?), fewer Birkenstocks, and a lower per capita income than the national average. However, they also have fewer Starbucks than average, and that could make a difference. If you have only Mr. Buffenbarger's criteria to go by, Mr. Obama might be crying into his latte come April 22nd.

On a personal note: I don't drink lattes, don't drive a Prius and I certainly don't have a trust fund. I do, however, have a great pair of Birkenstocks. Can you guess who I voted for?

* For all those statisticians out there, the correlation coefficient relating the number of Starbucks locations to Obama voting is 0.31. You might argue the outliers are exerting too much influence here, but removing them did not markedly change the correlation.

Photos by flickr users journeyscoffee, C4Chaos, and Jason Huang used under Creative Commons license.

Baltimore vs. Tampa

by Ethan on March 29, 2008

vs.

The Baltimore Orioles are kicking off the season with a three game series against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Monday.

By a total fluke we added Baltimore and Tampa Bay to Urbanspoon just this week. Coincidence? Fate? I don't know. But if you're a baseball fan who'd like to eat something a little more substantial than a hot dog, you are in luck. Now you can find a decent restaurant near Oriole Park.

For those in Tampa, you'll have to wait until the 8th (against Seattle) to pick a restaurant near Tropicana Field.

Your Profile

by Ethan on March 27, 2008

We've just put together a new Profile page where you can upload your photo and share your restaurant opinions with the world.

Once you upload a profile photo, a thumbnail version will appear next to each of your reviews. At the top of your profile you'll find a news feed showing your latest activities on Urbanspoon. Your profile also shows your reviews, favorites, wishlist, and votes.

But wait, there's more! On the left side of the page you can find useful statistics on your dining (or at least restaurant-voting) habits. You can see which neighborhoods and types of food predominate in your restaurant list.

We've also made it easier to add friends and compare restaurant picks with them. And when your friends vote, you'll see their opinions highlighted on the restaurant page.

Anyway, we're very excited about it. Check out my new-and-improved profile.

Dine for Darfur

by Ethan on February 26, 2008

Not that you need an extra excuse to eat out, but it's a rare treat when you can enjoy a meal and help people at the same time.

Some of the best restaurants in Seattle and Portland are banding together to help relief efforts in Darfur. Next Tuesday, March 4th, if you eat at one of the participating Dine for Darfur restaurants, 25% of the tab will be donated to Mercy Corps.

And since so many great places are taking part, you won't have to go out of your way to help. You can start your day with a coffee, grab a slice of pizza for lunch, and end with a swanky dinner, all secure in the knowledge that you're doing good.

See participating establishments:

• Seattle restaurants
• Portland restaurants

Granted this is nice PR for these restaurants. Still, it is a really good cause and these places are going out of their way to make a difference. Good for them!

Most Romantic City

by Patrick on February 16, 2008

It's well known that restaurants are packed on Valentine's day, but we decided to actually crunch the numbers and answer the burning question:

Which city in the US is the most romantic?
^*of the 29 cities covered by Urbanspoon

Most of our cities received abnormally high traffic on Valentine's day, and a few in particular seem to be tremendously romantic. Unfortunately, one of our cities lagged decidedly behind. Based on our rigorous statistical analysis of these patterns, we can definitively conclude the following.

Dallas is the most romantic city by far. Big D wins big. Las Vegas is the least romantic city by a landslide. What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, and has absolutely nothing to do with love.

Here are the complete results:

Urbanspoon on The Splendid Table

by Adam on February 09, 2008

We've officially hit the big time! Urbanspoon was featured on The Splendid Table today. Lynne Rossetto Kasper did a short (but punchy) interview with Ethan to discuss Urbanspoon.

We were thrilled to learn that she likes the site. It's especially gratifying to be on The Splendid Table since our foodie-focused team has been listening to her show for years. Apparently our work at Urbanspoon does not go entirely unnoticed.

If you missed it on the radio, you can still catch it online:

Listen to the show.

If you want to jump right to the Urbanspoon bit, zip forward to the 45 minute mark and wait patiently for Ethan's silky radio voice.

Where to eat on Valentine's Day

by Ethan on February 04, 2008

Less than two weeks to go before the biggest night of the year for eating out. On February 14th restaurants will roll out the red (and pink and white) carpet for diners in search of a romantic evening.

To help you in your selection, we've compiled a list of the most romantic restaurants in each city we cover. This is all pretty subjective, so we hope you'll help pick the winners. Please vote!

Alas, romance doesn't come without a price. Many fine dining establishments will offer a special Valentine's Day prix fixe meal, with a commensurately special price tag. And if you have your heart set on a particular place, you may want to make a reservation well in advance. Like now.

What about the rest of us?

To help those who don't want to spend a fortune, but still need to eat, we also have a page for the best cheap eats in town.

Finally, for those who just can't be bothered to fight the crowds on the 14th, we're now listing restaurants that deliver.

The Urbanspoon Newsletter

by Ethan on January 14, 2008

One reason to eat out is to let someone else do the dishes. In that same spirit, may we offer the Urbanspoon Newsletter.

Rather than digging around for all the latest reviews and restaurant openings in town, just sit back and let us do the work for you.

The newsletter shows the best newly opened restaurants and the latest reviews from newspapers, magazines and blogs, as well as the big winners and losers of the month: which restaurants are getting the most "I like it" and "I don't" votes.

But wait, there's more. It's personalized for you, so that in your newsletter you can see what your friends have been saying, and get the skinny on the restaurants you care about. Like when the little hole in the wall you thought no one knew about gets reviewed by the biggest paper in town.

Or in my case, discover that a restaurant on my wishlist closed before I even got to give it a try. Sigh.

Here's my latest newsletter:

Santa uses chopsticks

by Ethan on December 28, 2007

Christmas isn't the merriest day of the year for restaurant owners. Dining out dropped nearly in half on Christmas, if Urbanspoon's traffic is any indication. Not quite as dramatic as the Thanksgiving drop off, but still a big dip.

But clearly a lot of people are still eating out, and we got to wondering: where do they go?

We found our answer.

On Christmas Chinese restaurants made up one in every six restaurant searches on Urbanspoon -- over 16%. By comparison, on a typical day people only search for Chinese restaurants around 6% of the time.

We've reported before on the relative merit of Chinese food, but it's clearly the people's choice on Christmas.

Craving more statistics?

For those who are as fascinated with statistical analysis as we are, read on. While digging around, we discovered that while traffic was down across the board, the degree to which it was down varied widely depending on what city you happened to be in.

This means that if 100 people come to Urbanspoon Calgary on an average day, on Christmas only 40 people would do so.

This raises some questions. Why were only 40% of the people eating out on Christmas in Calgary, while 75% hit the town in Miami? We wondered what else differentiates Calgary from Miami, and leapt to an obvious conclusion.

If it doesn't snow on Christmas...

There's clearly a correlation between how warm a place is and how many people eat out on Christmas, but it's pretty weak. In fact, as our more scientifically minded friends have pointed out on our previous forays into statistics, you can measure the degree of correlation. In this case the so-called correlation coefficient is .36. The outliers here are telling. Why, for instance, does chilly Toronto eat out so much on Christmas? What's up with sun-soaked Austin staying in for the night?

Big city, little Christmas

Taking a different slice reveals a better correlation.

Apparently size matters. People living in larger cities are much more likely to eat out on Christmas than their smaller city cousins. We used the total number of restaurants in a city as a crude measure of city size, and that showed a much stronger .52 correlation coefficient.

So what can you take away from all of this? Not much. But if you want to avoid the family next year, move to a big warm city and go out for a nice Chinese dinner.

Photo available from flickr user Oldtasty under Creative Commons license.

Fixing Michelin's French bias

by Ethan on December 17, 2007

Michelin recently released its 2008 restaurant guides and their star ratings are now on Urbanspoon. For those of us who love fine dining the Michelin Guide is something of a bible, and despite some concerns it remains the definitive guide to haute cuisine. A Michelin star can make or break a restaurant, and losing a star can be a very big deal.

But the Michelin Guide isn't perfect. Sadly, Michelin only rates restaurants in four North American cities: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Las Vegas.

All French, all the time

Ethnic diversity is not a strength of the Michelin Guide, either. The French make delicious food, no question, but if we were to rely exclusively on the Michelin Guide to lead us to great restaurants only the most devoted Francophiles would be satisfied.

By our calculations, French restaurants make up only 1.6% of all the listings on Urbanspoon, and just 6% of fine dining ($$$-$$$$) establishments. But fully 45% of the Michelin Guide's starred restaurants are French.

By comparison, only one Thai, one Indian, one Latin American and one Chinese restaurant have received Michelin stars (when correlated with Urbanspoon's restaurant listings).

Figure 1: Michelin starred restaurants by type of cuisine

Create your own Michelin rating

We here at Urbanspoon would like to try to compensate for this cultural bias and correct for the geographical limitations of the Michelin Guide. You no longer have to wait for Michelin to come to your city. We've pored over the numbers and applied the strictest statistical analysis to establish a correlation between Urbanspoon ratings and Michelin stars.

Here's a handy guide to determine the equivalent star rating of your local favorites by looking at their Urbanspoon popularity percentage. If you don't happen to live in a Michelin Guide city, or if you do but your favorite restaurant isn't French, this chart's for you:

Michelin rating		Urbanspoon equivalent
	=	77%
	=	80%
	=	83%

So let's say you live in Seattle and your favorite Spanish restaurant has an Urbanspoon rating well over 83%. Using our analysis, you could now claim that you've been eating at a three star Michelin restaurant. If only they would have reviewed it!

As a point of reference, the average $$$-$$$$ restaurant gets a 68% on Urbanspoon